Will weather effect election outcome?

As of 11 a.m., rain sprinkled across the country as voters headed to polls to elect the 20th National Assembly, with speculation whether the weather will have a notable impact on the turnout and outcome.

Korea Meteorological Administration said that rain will continue until early afternoon, to be followed by a wave of yellow dust.

Weather has often been associated with the voter turnout in the past elections.

An official counting exit polls questions citizens at a polling station in Ulsan on Wednesday. (Yonhap)

The 15th general election in 1996 say 63.9 percent of votes, which henceforth continued to remain lower at 57.2 percent in 2000, 60.6 percent in 2004, 46.1 percent in 2008 and 54.2 percent in 2012.

It rained in both 2008 and 2012 where the voter turnout was one of the lowest in history.

This year, observers have cautiously predicted the ratio to surge nearly 60 percent, considering the highest voter turnout for early voting at 12.2 percent.

It has been a popular belief, although never numerically proven, that good weather is more benefiting to a conservative party and bad weather is more favorable for a liberal party.

It was based on the notion that younger voters tend to spend the day on outings if the weather is sunny instead of voting.

But neither party appeared to depend too much on the meteorological aspect of the polls.

Recent election outcomes also shun this theory.

While the 15th to 17th elections were conducted in sunny days, the voter turnout among 20s and 30s was lower than in the 18th and 19th election when it rained.

This time, regardless of the weather condition, young voters have shown relatively stronger determination to vote, observers note.

According to Realmeter, of the 2,536 eligible voters surveyed nationwide on April 4-8, 72.3 percent of those in their 30s said they will “actively vote.” It was the highest percentage out of all age groups.

(khnews@heraldcorp.com)

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